Many men say fortune and God govern the world so completely that wisdom cannot direct affairs and labor is wasted. Machiavelli admits the recent shocks can tempt you toward that view, yet he will not surrender free will. Fortune decides about half of our actions, perhaps a little less, and leaves the rest to us.
He compares fortune to a raging river that sweeps everything when in flood, yet in fair weather men can build dikes and canals so the next rise does less harm. Fortune strikes hardest where valour has not prepared barriers. Italy itself is the open country without defences; had it been guarded like Germany, Spain, or France, the invasions would not have reshaped it so violently.
A prince can be happy one day and ruined the next without changing character. Whoever relies entirely on fortune is lost when it turns. Success goes to whoever acts in the spirit of the times; failure follows mismatch. Two cautious men, or two bold ones, may diverge because only one fits the moment. When times change, the leader who cannot change course is ruined, often because nature and past success lock him into one method.
Julius II worked impetuously and found the times matched him. Against Bologna, with Venice and Spain opposed and France still negotiating, he marched anyway. His boldness paralyzed rivals and pulled France along. Waiting in Rome until every plan was fixed, as a cautious pope would have, would have produced excuses and fears forever. Had fortune later demanded caution, Julius would have failed because he could not deviate from his nature.
Fortune is changeful while men stay fixed in their ways. When the two align, men succeed. Machiavelli concludes it is better to be adventurous than cautious, because fortune must be mastered boldly when the moment calls for it.
Coming Up in Chapter 26
In the next chapter, Machiavelli turns to another crucial aspect of power and leadership Machiavelli drops analytical distance for a direct appeal. After weighing whether the present age favors a new prince, he concludes he has never known a time more fit..
