Chapter 11
When Fortune Tellers Fail
OF PROGNOSTICATIONS For what concerns oracles, it is certain that a good while before the coming of Jesus Christ they had begun to lose their credit; for we see that Cicero troubled to find out the cause of their decay, and he has these words: “Cur isto modo jam oracula Delphis non eduntur, non modo nostro aetate, sed jam diu; ut nihil possit esse contemptius?” [“What is the reason that the oracles at Delphi are no longer uttered: not merely in this age of ours, but for a long time past, insomuch that nothing is more in contempt?” --Cicero, De…
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Now let's explore the literary elements.
Key Quotes & Analysis
"What is the reason that the oracles at Delphi are no longer uttered: not merely in this age of ours, but for a long time past, insomuch that nothing is more in contempt?"
Context: Oracles already discredited before Montaigne's age
Skepticism about prophecy is ancient, not modern.
In Today's Words:
Cicero asks why Delphi's oracles stopped and became contemptible long ago. People treated fortune-telling as a joke even in classical Rome. When someone sells you ancient wisdom for their prediction business, remember the Delphi oracle itself had already fallen out of trust centuries before our time.
"I, for my part, should sooner regulate my affairs by the chance of a die than by such idle and vain dreams."
Context: Rejecting Tuscan divination origin story
Random chance is more honest than fabricated omens.
In Today's Words:
Montaigne says he would rather let dice decide than trust idle dreams and divination. At least dice do not pretend to be destiny speaking. When a decision feels urgent because of a sign or horoscope, treat the sign as noise and return to what you can actually verify.
"that their pictures are not here who were cast away, who are by much the greater number."
Context: Answer at Samothrace temple to shipwreck votives
Survivor bias explains apparent divine favor.
In Today's Words:
Diogenes, shown paintings of men saved from shipwreck, answers that the drowned are not pictured though they are far more numerous. We remember hits and forget misses. Before you trust a success story, ask how many silent failures the same method produced and never advertised.
"obscure, ambiguous, and fantastic gibberish of the prophetic canting, where their authors deliver nothing of clear sense, but shroud all in riddle, to the end that posterity may interpret and apply it according to its own fancy."
Context: Why vague prophecy survives
Ambiguity lets any later event claim the text.
In Today's Words:
Montaigne calls much prophecy obscure gibberish shrouded in riddles so later readers can bend it to any event. That is why vague forecasts feel accurate after the fact. When a prediction cannot be falsified up front, treat it as entertainment, not guidance for real decisions about your money or your life.
Thematic Threads
Vulnerability
In This Chapter
Anxiety about the future makes people susceptible to false prophets and charlatans who promise certainty
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might find yourself believing workplace gossip or health scares when you're already stressed about other things.
Deception
In This Chapter
Fortune-tellers succeed not by being right, but by sounding confident while people forget their failures
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might notice how some people gain influence by making bold predictions, even when they're often wrong.
Fear
In This Chapter
Francesco's fear of prophecies led him to betray his patron and destroy his own position
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might make hasty decisions when scared, like switching jobs based on rumors rather than facts.
Wisdom
In This Chapter
True insight comes from Socrates' 'inner voice'—judgment developed through experience and careful thinking
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might recognize that your best decisions come from trusting your own experience rather than other people's predictions.
Control
In This Chapter
Montaigne suggests focusing energy on present actions rather than trying to control an unknowable future
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might waste less time worrying about things you can't predict and more time on what you can actually influence.
You now have the context. Time to form your own thoughts.
Discussion Questions
This is not a test. Five prompts guide you through the chapter, from how it opens to how it closes, so you notice context and rhythm rather than facts to memorize. Sit with each question in your own words. When you see "One way to read it," treat it as a starting point, not the only answer.
- 1
Why does Montaigne say the Oracle at Delphi lost credibility even before Christianity arrived?
analysis • surfaceOne way to read it
Even ancient Romans like Cicero noticed the oracles had stopped working and become objects of contempt. The gods seemed to have gone silent long before any religious revolution.
- 2
Why does the Marquis of Saluzzo story work so well to illustrate the dangers of prophecy?
analysis • mediumOne way to read it
Francesco had everything to lose and nothing to gain by betraying France, yet prophecies terrified him into switching sides anyway. His fear of predicted doom became the very cause of his actual doom.
- 3
Where do you see people today acting like the arrow-shooters Montaigne describes?
application • mediumOne way to read it
Financial pundits make countless predictions and only highlight their hits, or social media influencers claim to predict trends while ignoring their many misses.
- 4
How would you respond to a friend obsessed with horoscopes making major life decisions based on astrological advice?
application • deepOne way to read it
Following Montaigne's approach, I'd ask them to track both hits and misses over time, and suggest developing their own judgment like Socrates rather than outsourcing decisions to vague predictions.
- 5
What does our endless appetite for fortune-telling reveal about how we handle uncertainty?
reflection • deepOne way to read it
We'd rather embrace comforting illusions of control than face the anxiety of genuine uncertainty. This makes us vulnerable to both charlatans and our own fears about the future.
Critical Thinking Exercise
Track Your Prediction Anxiety
Think about a current situation where you're anxious about the future - a job change, relationship, health concern, or family issue. Write down what specific predictions or reassurances you've been seeking from others. Then identify what you can actually control or influence in this situation right now, today.
Consider:
- •Notice how anxiety makes you want someone else to guarantee outcomes
- •Recognize the difference between helpful planning and magical thinking
- •Focus on building your own judgment rather than seeking false certainty
Journaling Prompt
Write about a time when fear of the unknown led you to trust someone who promised certainty but couldn't actually deliver. What would you do differently now?
Coming Up Next...
Chapter 12: When to Stand Your Ground
Montaigne turns from predicting the future to constancy under threat. He asks what true firmness means when retreat, ducking, and startle responses may be wiser than rigid heroics.
