Sun Tzu tells the ruler that the art of war is vital to the State because it is a matter of life and death, a road either to safety or to ruin, and that it cannot be left unexamined. Anyone deliberating on the conditions in the field has to hold five factors at once. The Moral Law puts the people in complete accord with their ruler, so they follow him through danger without dismay. Heaven is night and day, cold and heat, times and seasons. Earth is distance, danger and security, open ground and narrow passes, and the chances of life and death. The commander stands for wisdom, sincerity, benevolence, courage, and strictness. Method and discipline cover the army's subdivisions, the ranks of its officers, the roads that bring supplies, and the control of military expenditure. The general who knows these five will be victorious. The general who does not know them will fail.
Those five then become a comparison between the two sides, not a speech. Which sovereign is imbued with the Moral Law? Which general has more ability? With whom lie the advantages of Heaven and Earth? On which side is discipline more rigorously enforced, the army stronger, the officers and men better trained, and reward and punishment more constant? By those seven considerations Sun Tzu says he can forecast victory or defeat. The general who listens to the counsel and acts on it is kept in command. The general who will not listen is dismissed. Helpful circumstances beyond the ordinary rules are still to be used. When circumstances are favourable, the plans are modified.
What must not be divulged beforehand is the method itself. All warfare is based on deception, so the side that can attack appears unable, the side that is near appears far, and a bait or a feigned disorder is what draws the enemy into the crush. A choleric temper is irritated until it acts. A united force is separated. The strike falls where no preparation is waiting. Behind those appearances sits the earlier work. The general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses makes few. Many calculations lead to victory, and few lead to defeat, and Sun Tzu leaves the case of no calculation at all as the one he can already foresee.
Coming Up in Chapter 2
Sun Tzu turns from temple calculation to the cost ledger. In Chapter II, Waging War, he shows how long campaigns drain treasuries, wear out soldiers, and reward the side that ends the fight quickly, forages wisely, or never enters a costly war at all.
