Chapter 47
The Uncertainty of Our Judgment
OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF OUR JUDGMENT Well says this verse: [“There is everywhere much liberty of speech.”--Iliad, xx. 249.] For example: [“Hannibal conquered, but knew not how to make the best use of his victorious venture.”--Petrarch, Son., 83.] Such as would improve this argument, and condemn the oversight of our leaders in not pushing home the victory at Moncontour, or accuse the King of Spain of not knowing how to make the best use of the advantage he had against us at St. Quentin, may conclude these oversights to proceed from a soul already drunk with success, or from a…
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Now let's explore the literary elements.
Key Quotes & Analysis
"Dum fortuna calet, dum conficit omnia terror."
Context: Strike while fortune is hot
Momentum matters.
In Today's Words:
Montaigne quotes Lucan that while fortune is fresh and terror finishes all among the enemy, delay wastes the advantage you already paid for in blood. Critics say generals should press a rout hard. When you have momentum, ask whether waiting is prudence or fear dressed up as patience.
"not to be called a victory that puts not an end to the war."
Context: Fencing vs war
Partial win insufficient.
In Today's Words:
Montaigne says war is not like fencing where most hits win; it is not a victory that puts not an end to the war while the enemy remains on foot. The game restarts until someone breaks. Do not celebrate a round you have not actually closed.
"he by so doing deprived himself of the violent impression the motion of running adds to the first shock of arms, and hindered that clashing of the combatants against one another which is wont to give them greater impetuosity and fury; especially when they come to rush in with their utmost vigour, their courages increasing by the shouts and the career; ‘tis to render the soldiers’ ardour, as a man may say, more reserved and cold"
Context: Pompey at Pharsalia
Stillness costs shock.
In Today's Words:
Plutarch says Pompey deprived his men of the violent impression running adds to the first shock of arms, leaving their ardour more reserved and cold. Standing still dulled the charge. Yet Caesar's side would praise the same stillness on another day; context rewrites the lesson.
"our discourses have great participation in the temerity of chance."
Context: Closing doubt
Reason shares luck.
In Today's Words:
Montaigne ends with Timaeus in Plato that we argue rashly and adventurously because our discourses have great participation in the temerity of chance. Judgment rides fortune's tail. Treat your postmortem as hypothesis, not scripture, when the same facts could easily have produced the opposite outcome.
Thematic Threads
Judgment
In This Chapter
Montaigne demonstrates how the same military decision can be judged as wisdom or cowardice depending on perspective
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might judge a coworker's caution as smart planning or frustrating indecision based on your own priorities
Uncertainty
In This Chapter
Multiple valid strategic approaches exist for the same military situation, showing inherent uncertainty in decision-making
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You face uncertainty when choosing between job security and career advancement, with valid arguments for both paths
Perspective
In This Chapter
The same action appears completely different when viewed through different strategic frameworks
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
Your teenager's behavior might seem rebellious from a parent's view but independence-seeking from their perspective
Humility
In This Chapter
Montaigne advocates holding opinions lightly rather than insisting on one correct view
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might practice intellectual humility by acknowledging valid points in political discussions rather than dismissing opposing views
Fortune
In This Chapter
Random chance affects military outcomes regardless of how carefully leaders reason through their decisions
Development
Introduced here
In Your Life:
You might recognize how luck influences your career success alongside your hard work and planning
You now have the context. Time to form your own thoughts.
Discussion Questions
This is not a test. Five prompts guide you through the chapter, from how it opens to how it closes, so you notice context and rhythm rather than facts to memorize. Sit with each question in your own words. When you see "One way to read it," treat it as a starting point, not the only answer.
- 1
Why does Montaigne say both that generals should press their advantage after victory AND that they should let beaten enemies escape?
analysis • surfaceOne way to read it
He shows how the same military situation can be judged completely differently using equally sound reasoning, demonstrating that human judgment is inherently uncertain.
- 2
How does the Hannibal vs. Pompey example reveal why smart people reach opposite conclusions about the same strategy?
analysis • mediumOne way to read it
Each side focuses on different risks and benefits. Pressing advantage risks cornering desperate enemies; holding back risks losing momentum. Both perspectives have merit.
- 3
Where do you see this pattern of competing valid viewpoints in current political or workplace debates?
application • mediumOne way to read it
Remote work debates show this perfectly. Some argue it boosts productivity and work-life balance; others say it hurts collaboration and company culture. Both sides cite real evidence.
- 4
How would you handle a family argument where everyone thinks they're obviously right, using Montaigne's insight about judgment?
application • deepOne way to read it
Ask each person to argue the other side's position seriously. This reveals how reasonable people can disagree and often leads to finding common ground or compromise solutions.
- 5
What does Montaigne's claim that 'our counsels depend as much upon fortune' suggest about how we should hold our opinions?
reflection • deepOne way to read it
We should maintain intellectual humility, recognizing that even our best reasoning involves uncertainty and chance. This doesn't mean abandoning judgment, but holding views more lightly.
Critical Thinking Exercise
Map the Competing Truths
Think of a current disagreement in your life - maybe about money, parenting, work policies, or family decisions. Write down the strongest argument for each side, identifying the valid concerns and values driving each position. Don't try to prove who's right; instead, map out why reasonable people landed on opposite sides.
Consider:
- •What underlying values or priorities is each side protecting?
- •What evidence or experience is each side drawing from?
- •Where might both sides have legitimate points worth addressing?
Journaling Prompt
Write about a time when you changed your mind about something important. What made you see the other perspective as valid? How did that shift change your approach to similar disagreements?
Coming Up Next...
Chapter 48: War Horses and the Art of Control
After uncertain judgment, Montaigne turns to the war horse. Roman destriers will charge at a drawn sword while Numidian riders leap between mounts in mid-battle.
